Russia coup attempt in 2026?

Putin maintains firm control over Russia’s security apparatus and political elite in 2026 despite ongoing war-related strains, including Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian territory and reported elite infighting. Kremlin security measures tightened sharply from March onward following European intelligence assessments of potential plots, including concerns tied to figures like Sergei Shoigu, yet no organized coup attempt has materialized by mid-August. Historical patterns show Russian leaders rarely face successful internal challenges once consolidated, and trader consensus reflects the absence of credible triggers or defections capable of overcoming these barriers in the remaining months of the year.

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