Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?

Israel’s October 27, 2026, legislative election, following Knesset dissolution in July, drives Netanyahu’s elevated 26% odds, as he serves as interim prime minister while facing corruption trials, security criticisms, and coalition uncertainty that could end his tenure before 2027. Spain’s June non-binding parliamentary resolution urging Sánchez’s resignation amid corruption probes contributes to his 5.3% share, though he has rejected early elections or a confidence vote and aims to complete the term through 2027. Lower probabilities for Díaz-Canel, Macron, Merz, and others reflect limited near-term electoral or institutional pressures, supporting the 41.5% consensus on no listed leader departing before the cutoff. Trader pricing incorporates these timelines and procedural barriers without assuming outcomes.

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