Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?

Russian forces have conducted sustained offensive operations around Kostyantynivka, a key logistical hub in Ukraine’s Donbas “fortress belt,” with infiltrations into the city beginning in late 2025 and intensifying through mid-2026. Russian claims of full capture in early July 2026 remain unconfirmed by independent assessments, which describe ongoing urban combat, intermixed positions, and Ukrainian counterattacks as of early August. Superior Russian glide-bomb and aviation support has enabled incremental gains and infiltration missions, though progress remains slow and costly with no operationally significant breakthroughs. Ukrainian units continue rotating forces and contesting central and western districts, while broader Russian advances in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka sector have not produced encirclement. Continued fighting is expected in the coming weeks, with outcomes dependent on reinforcement flows, artillery and drone strikes, and Ukrainian defensive rotations.

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