Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Likud holds a narrow lead in recent Israeli polls as the party most likely to secure the largest Knesset bloc ahead of the October 27 election, reflecting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s consolidation within his party and incremental gains in voter support. Yashar, led by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot, remains competitive at roughly even odds in multiple surveys, buoyed by its centrist positioning and criticism of the government’s security record, though some late polls show it trailing by one seat. The Bennett-Lapid Together alliance trails further behind, with limited momentum after its April formation. Small parties such as Shas, The Democrats, and Otzma Yehudit register minimal standalone support in current projections. Trader pricing tracks these polling trends and the tight Likud-Yashar contest for first place, amid ongoing coalition arithmetic and domestic debates over military service and regional security.

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