Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?

US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian oil exports have kept Kharg Island central to military and diplomatic calculations since the 2026 conflict began. US strikes hit military targets on the island in March and April without touching oil facilities, while Iran reinforced defenses with additional troops, air systems, and mines. President Trump publicly threatened seizure of the terminal, which handles the bulk of Iran’s crude exports, as leverage in June statements, though he later referenced ongoing talks and no ground operation has occurred. A April ceasefire paused major combat but left blockade measures and sporadic strikes in place. Traders assign low probabilities to loss of Iranian control by late 2026 because amphibious or occupation scenarios carry high escalation risks, uncertain strategic gains, and potential global energy disruption, with any shift dependent on future diplomatic breakthroughs or renewed offensive decisions.

View this market on Polymarket →