Will the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum pass?

The military-led transitional authorities’ firm control over the referendum process, scheduled for August 30, 2026, underpins the strong trader consensus that the proposed constitutional changes will pass. Following the 2025 coup, the junta established a transitional charter, secured Supreme Court approval, and advanced a draft shifting Guinea-Bissau toward a presidential system with expanded executive authority over appointments and parliament. Recent July 2026 announcements formalized the vote amid limited opposition leverage, despite calls from extra-parliamentary groups for postponement over inclusivity concerns. ECOWAS mediation efforts have not altered the timeline. While late-stage diplomatic pressure, low turnout, or procedural disputes could still intervene before resolution, current institutional momentum favors approval by the narrow window.

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