Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Ongoing diplomatic contacts between Presidents Trump and Putin, including July 2026 calls and references to prior summits in Alaska and Helsinki, have not produced firm commitments for additional in-person meetings through year-end amid the protracted Ukraine conflict. Trader pricing reflects stalled progress toward a negotiated settlement, with U.S. officials noting no quick path to a deal despite ongoing envoys and Russian emphasis on prior understandings. China leads location probabilities as a potential neutral venue for any breakthrough talks, while low odds on Russia, the United States, or European sites align with persistent barriers from battlefield developments, NATO dynamics, and sanctions. The dominant “no meeting” outcome captures the absence of scheduled multilateral forums like the G20 that would guarantee a 2026 encounter before December 31.

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