Will AfD win 23-25 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Recent polling averages for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election place the AfD at 17–19% support, a near-doubling of its 9.1% result from 2023 and enough for roughly 27–32 seats in the 147-seat chamber under current apportionment rules. This positioning reflects national momentum for the party, which has reached record highs near 28% in federal surveys, alongside localized gains in a fragmented field where the Left leads some trends at 20–21%, followed closely by the CDU, Greens, and SPD. Other parties’ refusal to form coalitions with the AfD limits its governing prospects but does not cap its seat total. The tight clustering of outcomes around 29–34 seats aligns with stable late-July and early-August surveys showing modest AfD edges or ties in Berlin-specific polling; further shifts could occur before election day depending on turnout and final voter movement among the five main parties.

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