Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?

Wildberries’ dominant position in Russian e-commerce, with 2025 GMV exceeding 6 trillion rubles and reported positive pre-tax profits, underpins trader expectations that the platform will avoid a bankruptcy filing before 2027. Recent Ukrainian drone strikes on its logistics hubs in July 2026 damaged capacity and generated substantial losses for merchants, prompting the company to freeze loan repayments through October and explore compensation. Elevated corporate debt near 1.3 trillion rubles has fueled speculation about restructuring needs or external support, yet no insolvency proceedings have been initiated. The platform’s systemic role in retail and employment, combined with involvement from major banks such as VTB, supports the current 89% implied probability that institutional backing or operational adjustments will stabilize the business rather than trigger an announcement.

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