Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?

Ongoing geopolitical tensions and Iran’s asserted control over the Strait of Hormuz, amid recent vessel attacks and a U.S. naval presence, have driven daily transits to single digits or low teens as of early August 2026, well below the pre-conflict average of roughly 100 vessels. This environment underpins the tight contest between the 25-49 and <25 outcome bins at 47.0% and 39.5% implied probability, reflecting trader assessment of whether limited Omani-route or approved passages can push weekly totals modestly higher amid prohibitive war-risk premiums and insurance constraints. Iran-Oman route talks and sporadic dark transits represent the main swing factors that could differentiate the leading probabilities, while elevated oil prices near $100 per barrel underscore the supply-disruption backdrop without signaling near-term normalization.

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