Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?

Recent polling from Survation places Nigel Farage on around 73% in the Clacton by-election, driven by Reform UK’s entrenched local support following his 2024 general election win and the absence of major party challengers. This underpins the tight market spread between the 60-70% and 70-80% brackets, reflecting trader assessments of low expected turnout and vote fragmentation among 33 mostly independent or novelty candidates. Farage’s July 2026 resignation to trigger the contest amid scrutiny over a reported £5 million gift introduced some uncertainty over momentum, though his re-contest has consolidated Reform backing without significant erosion in recent surveys. Factors that could shift the final share include turnout levels on 13 August and any late swings in protest or tactical voting.

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