Will Russia target Kyiv by August 14, 2026?

Russia has conducted multiple long-range missile and drone barrages against Kyiv and surrounding areas in recent weeks, including a major strike on August 5 that killed at least 17 civilians and earlier attacks in late July that caused additional casualties. These operations target energy infrastructure and military sites while exploiting reported shortages of Ukrainian Patriot interceptors. Ukrainian forces have responded with drone strikes on Russian logistics and energy facilities, contributing to a broader pattern of aerial escalation. Traders assess the likelihood of qualifying Russian strikes continuing through the resolution window based on this sustained tempo, Ukrainian air defense capacity, and any shifts in Russian operational priorities amid ongoing ground advances elsewhere.

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