Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?

Yes92%
American odds-1076
24h move▼ 0.5 pp
24h volume$38K
PlatformPolymarket
ClosesDec 31, 2026
Implied probability over time

Netanyahu has repeatedly confirmed his intention to address the UN General Assembly during its high-level debate in New York in September 2026, aligning with his long-standing pattern of annual appearances unless security concerns intervene. The 81st UNGA session opens in early September, with the main debate phase beginning around September 22. Recent statements from New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani referencing the ICC arrest warrant have generated headlines, yet the mayor lacks authority to execute such warrants, which fall under federal jurisdiction. U.S. officials have signaled continued support for the visit. These factors, combined with Netanyahu’s public dismissal of enforcement risks, shape trader assessments of the visit’s likelihood ahead of the scheduled diplomatic event.


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Prices updated 2 months ago · source: prediction markets, not a sportsbook