Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Iran maintains its longstanding position that uranium enrichment on its territory is a non-negotiable sovereign right, as stated by officials including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and President Masoud Pezeshkian during 2025–2026 talks with the United States. Multiple rounds of indirect negotiations, including via Oman, have produced a June 2026 memorandum of understanding on stockpile dilution and sanctions relief, yet enrichment levels, facility operations, and verification remain unresolved after 60 days of follow-on discussions. Iran has repeatedly rejected U.S. demands for zero enrichment or offshore relocation, while IAEA reports document continued high-level enrichment activity and inspection constraints. With no breakthrough reported by mid-2026 and core red lines intact ahead of the year-end deadline, trader consensus reflects limited prospects for a binding commitment to full termination.

View this market on Polymarket →