Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?

Israel maintains a military presence in southern Lebanon amid the 2026 Lebanon war with Hezbollah, following a U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreed in April 2026 and extended in June. Withdrawal hinges on Hezbollah’s full evacuation south of the Litani River, disarmament verification, and Lebanese Armed Forces assuming control of designated zones. Recent incidents, including an early August explosion killing two Israeli reservists and subsequent Israeli strikes, have strained the truce and prompted Netanyahu to condition any pullback on sustained security guarantees. Ongoing trilateral talks focus on pilot security zones and monitoring arrangements, with trader sentiment reflecting uncertainty over Hezbollah compliance timelines and risks of renewed escalation before year-end deadlines.

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