Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Israel’s Knesset dissolved in July 2026, scheduling legislative elections for October 27 that will determine whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu forms a new coalition or yields power after serving as interim leader. His Likud party competes against opposition alliances including figures such as Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, with polls indicating a competitive right-wing bloc amid ongoing Gaza operations and public scrutiny of security policy. Netanyahu’s recent rejection of a U.S.-backed Gaza plan, coupled with demands for full Hamas disarmament and statements ruling out a Palestinian state, reinforces his base while highlighting coalition dependencies on far-right partners. Post-election negotiations, historical patterns of extended government formation, and his ongoing legal proceedings add uncertainty to the timeline for any transition. Traders assess near-term departure probabilities through these electoral and coalition dynamics.

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