US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?

Yes0%
American odds+66567
24h move▼ 0.1 pp
24h volume$19K
PlatformPolymarket
ClosesAug 13, 2026
Implied probability over time

Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain centered on resolving the nuclear program following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, which established a 60-day window for a comprehensive agreement on highly enriched uranium stockpiles, uranium enrichment limits, sanctions relief, and related security issues after months of conflict and indirect talks. As of early August 2026, the period is concluding amid continued messaging through intermediaries such as Qatar and Pakistan, with U.S. officials describing the talks as a final opportunity while Iran emphasizes compliance concerns and conditions for resuming formal sessions. Recent developments include U.S. decisions to prioritize diplomacy over additional strikes, Iranian statements on partial progress without imminent signing, and technical discussions on inspector access and economic measures. These factors shape trader assessments of whether a final accord can be reached before any extension or shift in leverage.


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