Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Recent US-Iran diplomacy centers on the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which established a 60-day (extendable) framework for talks after months of conflict that disrupted the Strait of Hormuz. The MoU calls for immediate steps on navigation rights, sanctions relief tied to verified nuclear steps, working groups on oversight and missiles, and de-escalation in Lebanon, while reaffirming Iran’s non-weapon commitment. As of early August, messages continue through intermediaries amid disputes over Hormuz access and implementation, with technical discussions addressing highly enriched uranium stockpiles, enrichment limits, and oil export waivers. Key variables for any final agreement include verifiable nuclear constraints, ballistic missile curbs, regional proxy restraints, and phased economic measures, all within the existing negotiation timeline.

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