Will AfD win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

Recent polls through early August 2026 show the AfD holding steady at 35-36% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20 Landtag election, up sharply from 16.7% in 2021, while the incumbent SPD has recovered modestly to 28-29%. These figures, alongside Linke support near 11-12% and weaker showings for CDU, Greens, and others, align with the market’s leading 28-31 seat range for the AfD under the state’s proportional system. SPD gains have narrowed but not reversed the AfD’s lead, and ongoing debates over cooperation barriers have not shifted vote intentions in recent surveys. Trader consensus on this bracket reflects polling stability without major late disruptions.

View this market on Polymarket →