**Polls ahead of the September 6, 2026 Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election show AfD consistently at 41-42 percent, well ahead of the CDU at 22-24 percent and Die Linke near 13 percent, with smaller parties clustered around or below the 5 percent threshold.**
This lead stems from sustained eastern German support amid national trends following the collapse of the prior federal coalition and limited approval for the current CDU-SPD government. However, seat projections for the 83-member parliament, where 42 seats are needed for an absolute majority, most often fall in the high 30s to low 40s. The outcome depends on whether enough minor parties fall below the threshold to convert AfD’s vote share into a majority bloc; recent INSA and Infratest dimap surveys through early August indicate this remains uncertain rather than assured. Traders assign the “No” outcome 68.5 percent implied probability because the polling trajectory and fragmentation patterns have stayed stable without the decisive upward shift required for a guaranteed seat majority.