Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Gadi Eizenkot leads trader consensus as the likely next Israeli prime minister following the October 27, 2026 Knesset election, reflecting his recent polling surge with the Yashar party, which has drawn even or ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud. Eizenkot’s positioning stems from his record as former IDF chief of staff, personal losses during the Gaza conflict, and appeal as a security-focused centrist without prior ministerial baggage. Netanyahu trails amid persistent coalition strains, legal proceedings, and voter fatigue after multiple terms. Lower-probability contenders such as Avigdor Lieberman and Naftali Bennett remain secondary due to narrower bases and limited recent momentum in aggregating opposition seats toward the 61 needed for a majority. Coalition arithmetic, including potential Arab-party roles, continues to shape viability assessments ahead of the vote.

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