**Ongoing Houthi threats and a declared blockade targeting Saudi-linked shipping have sharply curtailed transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving the market-implied probability of fewer than 180 weekly vessel calls to 66.5%.**
In July 2026, amid escalation in the broader Iran conflict, Yemen’s Houthis announced restrictions on vessels tied to Saudi ports and struck multiple Saudi tankers and oil facilities in the Red Sea. Recent tracking data show daily commodity-ship movements averaging around 30–39, well below pre-2024 norms of roughly 70–75, with further dips after the attacks as carriers reroute around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid insurance and security risks. This environment of sustained deterrence—rather than outright closure—has produced the current trader consensus favoring the lowest outcome bin, consistent with observed weekly totals near or below 180. Key swing factors remain any intensification of strikes or naval responses that could push volumes even lower, versus any rapid de-escalation that might allow modest recovery toward the 180–199 range.