Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

Yes45%
American odds+125
24h move▼ 0.5 pp
24h volume$12K
PlatformPolymarket
ClosesDec 31, 2026
Implied probability over time

Recent announcements from the US-led Board of Peace and President Trump indicate Hamas has accepted a phased framework for complete disarmament of its forces and other groups in Gaza, including inventorying and storing heavy weapons under Palestinian oversight, as part of a broader ceasefire roadmap tied to gradual Israeli withdrawals. This follows months of stalled talks since the October 2025 ceasefire, with mediators from Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey involved. Israel has voiced serious security concerns, insisting on verifiable destruction of weapons rather than storage and stating no further withdrawals will occur until genuine demilitarization is confirmed. Implementation timelines span weeks to years, with disputes over sequencing, oversight, and definitions of disarmament remaining key variables that could influence whether a binding agreement advances.


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