Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?

Tensions between India and Pakistan remain shaped by the May 2025 four-day conflict, which began with Indian missile strikes under Operation Sindoor following a terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir and ended in a U.S.-brokered ceasefire. Over a year later, no comparable cross-border military actions have occurred, with traders viewing the absence of fresh triggers and the demonstrated costs of escalation as key restraints on new strikes by the end of 2026. Diplomatic signals, including a December 2025 foreign ministers’ handshake and early 2026 Track 2 discussions, have supported cautious dialogue, while India’s strategic focus has shifted toward China. Airspace restrictions and periodic border alerts persist, yet scheduled meetings or renewed incidents could still alter sentiment if they signal de-escalation or renewed friction.

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