Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?

Yes78%
American odds-344
24h move▲ 7.0 pp
24h volume$837
PlatformPolymarket
ClosesAug 14, 2026
Implied probability over time

**Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was assassinated in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes amid the Iran conflict, triggering a swift succession process that installed his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader by early March.** The official @khamenei_ir account has since operated primarily as an archive, reposting historical statements rather than issuing new content from the late leader. In early August 2026, activity centered on thematic religious observances such as Arbaeen, with a handful of older quotes shared over several days and no evident surge in fresh material. This pattern, combined with the leadership transition and institutional focus on consolidation, aligns with trader expectations of minimal output—under five posts—for the August 7–14 window, as reflected in the dominant market pricing. No major scheduled addresses or diplomatic statements from the account have been confirmed in the immediate period that would alter this trajectory.


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Prices updated 2 months ago · source: prediction markets, not a sportsbook