Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

United Russia maintains a commanding lead in trader assessments for securing the most State Duma seats, driven by its entrenched administrative mobilization across single-mandate districts, the mixed electoral system favoring the incumbent party, and consistent polling advantages around 35-48 percent. Recent preparations, including a party list headed by Dmitry Medvedev alongside other pro-government figures, underscore Kremlin efforts to consolidate support ahead of the September 2026 vote. New People’s second-place positioning reflects its stronger recent poll numbers in some surveys, positioning it ahead of traditional systemic opposition parties like the LDPR and KPRF, though structural barriers limit its overall prospects. The remaining parties trail due to lower visibility and weaker regional organization.

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