Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?

Russian forces have conducted a prolonged attritional offensive against Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast since April 2024, using artillery, drones, and incremental ground assaults to gain ground east of the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal and in southern sectors. Russian claims of full capture in July 2025 remain disputed, with open-source assessments indicating continued Ukrainian presence and localized counteractions into mid-2026. Recent developments include Russian infiltration operations in southern Chasiv Yar reported in July 2026 alongside Ukrainian clearing efforts near Kostyantynivka, reflecting slow Russian progress amid high casualties. Control of the elevated terrain would support further advances toward the Ukrainian-held fortress belt cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, though Ukrainian defensive positions and reinforcements continue to constrain rapid breakthroughs. Market resolution depends on confirmed territorial control by the specified deadline.

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