Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?

Russian forces continue offensive operations around Lyman in Donetsk Oblast as part of broader efforts to advance toward Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, with daily assaults reported near Drobysheve, Dibrova, Ozerne, and surrounding villages. Ukrainian units have repelled dozens of attacks in recent weeks while using drones to disrupt Russian logistics and supply lines. Verified advances remain limited, and Russian claims of progress or positions inside the city have frequently gone unconfirmed. Heavy fighting persists along the axis with no resolution to the immediate threat of encirclement, leaving outcomes dependent on sustained Ukrainian defensive capacity, Russian force concentration, and any shifts in artillery or drone effectiveness through late 2026.

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