Will the Citizens’ Coalition (MED) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

Recent opinion polls for Sweden’s September 13, 2026, parliamentary election show the Social Democrats holding a clear lead near 32–34 percent, with the Sweden Democrats consistently placed second around 19–21 percent and the Moderate Party third near 17–18 percent. This stable ordering across multiple surveys from May through July has anchored trader expectations that the Moderates will finish third. The Sweden Democrats retain a meaningful chance of moving into third if late shifts narrow their gap with the Moderates or if turnout patterns favor them. Smaller parties trail further behind and show little momentum to alter the top-three configuration. Traders price these probabilities in line with the current polling consensus and the limited time remaining before election day.

View this market on Polymarket →