Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?

Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran conflict that began February 28, 2026, have kept the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to most commercial traffic, driving the 80.5% market-implied probability on 0-20 daily transits. Recent ship-tracking data from IMF PortWatch and Lloyd’s List show averages of just 2-8 vessels per day in early August, versus pre-crisis norms of 60-140, reflecting persistent IRGC restrictions, strike risks, elevated war-risk insurance, and limited non-Iranian or Chinese-linked movements. A June memorandum of understanding produced only a brief, partial rebound before volumes fell again amid renewed security concerns. With no resolution in sight by month-end, trader consensus prices in sustained suppression of oil and bulk flows through this key energy chokepoint.

View this market on Polymarket →