Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?

Yes31%
American odds+228
24h move▼ 2.5 pp
24h volume$3K
PlatformPolymarket
ClosesDec 31, 2026
Implied probability over time

Tensions in China-Japan relations have persisted since the leaders’ October 2025 APEC meeting in South Korea, with Beijing protesting Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s subsequent contacts with Taiwan officials and her support for strengthened defense cooperation. Xi Jinping publicly criticized Japan’s “remilitarization” during a May 2026 summit with U.S. President Trump, while July 2026 diplomatic exchanges at ASEAN meetings were disputed, with Beijing denying any substantive talks occurred. Japanese officials have sought to arrange a bilateral summit on the sidelines of the November 2026 APEC gathering in China, though procedural disputes over Taiwan, security concerns, and economic issues continue to limit high-level engagement. Upcoming regional forums and any shifts in bilateral signaling could influence prospects for renewed leader-level contact.


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Prices updated 2 months ago · source: prediction markets, not a sportsbook