Will Yabloko win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Recent polling from sources such as VCIOM and FOM shows New People and the LDPR trading narrow leads in the low double digits for third place behind United Russia, with the KPRF close behind but structurally steadier in regional strongholds. Party list registrations closed in July, CEC appointments incorporated figures from both LDPR and New People, and multi-day voting from September 18–20 is set. New People’s newer organization and media positioning compete against the LDPR’s established nationalist base and candidate infrastructure, while campaign restrictions and administrative factors limit separation among the systemic parties. These elements sustain the tight trader consensus between the two frontrunners for third, with late-campaign shifts in turnout or regional results the main variables that could widen the gap before election day.

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