Platform: Polymarket
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Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
The official @khamenei_ir account, associated with statements from Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, maintains historically low posting volume on X, with activity centered on archival or occasional reposts rather than daily updates. Recent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, including his August 9 appointment of a new Supreme National Security Council secretary, has not…
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Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
Elon Musk’s established high-volume posting cadence on X—typically 20-30 tweets per day amid business updates, replies, and commentary—anchors trader consensus around the 160-219 tweet range for the August 11-18 window, with those three brackets holding the highest implied probabilities. Recent daily tallies, including 41 posts on August 9 tied to Starlink and company topics, reflect…
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Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?
Wildberries’ dominant position in Russian e-commerce, with 2025 GMV exceeding 6 trillion rubles and reported positive pre-tax profits, underpins trader expectations that the platform will avoid a bankruptcy filing before 2027. Recent Ukrainian drone strikes on its logistics hubs in July 2026 damaged capacity and generated substantial losses for merchants, prompting the company to freeze…
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Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei holds the leading position in the market following his March 2026 selection by Iran’s Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes during the 2026 Iran war. This rapid transition, backed by security institutions including the IRGC, reflects trader consensus on continuity in the short…
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Will the Democratic Party win the NC-04 House seat?
The Democratic incumbent Valerie Foushee holds a commanding position in North Carolina’s 4th congressional district due to its consistent Democratic lean, favorable nonpartisan ratings as a solid or safe seat, and substantial fundraising advantage over Republican nominee Max Ganorkar. Foushee’s narrow primary victory and the district’s voting history reinforce trader consensus reflected in current pricing.…
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Will AfD win 23-25 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Recent polling averages for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election place the AfD at 17–19% support, a near-doubling of its 9.1% result from 2023 and enough for roughly 27–32 seats in the 147-seat chamber under current apportionment rules. This positioning reflects national momentum for the party, which has reached record highs near 28% in federal…
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Will Jeremy Matlow win the Tallahassee mayoral election?
Recent polling from late July shows former state Sen. Loranne Ausley leading the four-candidate field for the August 18 primary at 29 percent, with City Commissioner Jeremy Matlow close behind at 24 percent and Daryl Parks further back, leaving nearly one-third of voters undecided. The nonpartisan open-seat contest, with no incumbent, features a primary that…
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Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei holds the leading position in the market following his March 2026 selection by Iran’s Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes during the 2026 Iran war. This rapid transition, backed by security institutions including the IRGC, reflects trader consensus on continuity in the short…
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Will the Democratic Party win the FL-16 House seat?
The open seat in Florida’s 16th congressional district, following longtime Republican incumbent Vern Buchanan’s retirement, features a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+6 that underpins the Republican Party’s 76.5% implied probability. Forecasters including Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections rate the general election Solid or Likely Republican, reflecting the district’s voting patterns in recent…
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Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Traders assign a 91% probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting the continued absence of large-scale PLA amphibious mobilization, sealift expansion, or sustained surge activity required for such an operation. Beijing has instead sustained gray-zone pressure through July 2026 live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait and routine coast guard patrols…