Platform: Polymarket
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Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei holds the leading position in the market following his March 2026 selection by Iran’s Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes during the 2026 Iran war. This rapid transition, backed by security institutions including the IRGC, reflects trader consensus on continuity in the short…
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Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei holds the leading position in the market following his March 2026 selection by Iran’s Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes during the 2026 Iran war. This rapid transition, backed by security institutions including the IRGC, reflects trader consensus on continuity in the short…
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Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31?
Israeli forces advanced across the Litani River in May 2026 during expanded ground operations in southern Lebanon, establishing positions north of the river and issuing evacuation orders extending toward the Zahrani River. Subsequent U.S.-mediated talks produced a June 2026 framework for renewed ceasefires and phased Israeli withdrawals from designated “pilot zones,” with the first handovers…
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Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 10–15%?
Francesca Hong, the democratic socialist state representative, holds a clear lead in late polls for the August 11 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary after multiple high-profile dropouts narrowed the field. Recent withdrawals by former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes amid allegations and Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez over campaign finance issues shifted support toward Hong, who now polls…
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Will Anthony Garotinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
Eduardo Paes leads the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial race with overwhelming trader consensus, reflecting his long record as a two-term mayor who resigned in March 2026 to seek the state executive under the PSD banner. Recent polling shows him ahead by wide margins, supported by established name recognition, administrative continuity, and a fragmented field…
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Will Trump and Putin not meet?
Ongoing diplomatic contacts between Presidents Trump and Putin, including July 2026 calls and references to prior summits in Alaska and Helsinki, have not produced firm commitments for additional in-person meetings through year-end amid the protracted Ukraine conflict. Trader pricing reflects stalled progress toward a negotiated settlement, with U.S. officials noting no quick path to a…
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Will Peter Burgelis be the WI-01 Democratic nominee?
Mitchell Berman holds a commanding lead in the Wisconsin 1st Congressional District Democratic primary, scheduled for August 11, 2026, due to his early entry in August 2025, superior fundraising exceeding $700,000, and endorsements from organized labor including the United Auto Workers along with state legislators. Peter Burgelis withdrew and endorsed Berman while remaining on the…
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Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
Traders price the Ukraine peace referendum at just 5% odds of passing before 2027 because negotiations remain stalled without a ceasefire or framework acceptable to both sides. U.S.-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva through early 2026 yielded only prisoner swaps, while core disputes over territorial concessions, Ukrainian neutrality, and security guarantees persist. Russian…
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Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
The Democratic presidential nomination field for 2028 remains wide open, with traders pricing Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a tight cluster near the top. This reflects an early post-2024 cycle environment lacking an obvious frontrunner or consensus choice among party figures. Multiple governors and senators continue to build profiles through state-level roles,…
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Will Linke win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
The Berlin state election on September 20 features a tight race for second place, with recent July polls showing Die Linke, AfD, and CDU clustered between roughly 16% and 22% support amid a fragmented field that also includes the Greens and SPD. National momentum favoring the AfD and local dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition…