Platform: Polymarket

Incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro maintains a double-digit polling edge over Republican challenger Stacy Garrity in the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial race, with recent surveys showing leads ranging from 7 to 20 points amid the state’s battleground dynamics and voter turnout patterns. Traders price the most likely Democrat victory margin in the 15-20% range at 27%, reflecting…

Incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro maintains a double-digit polling edge over Republican challenger Stacy Garrity in the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial race, with recent surveys showing leads ranging from 7 to 20 points amid the state’s battleground dynamics and voter turnout patterns. Traders price the most likely Democrat victory margin in the 15-20% range at 27%, reflecting…

Incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro maintains a double-digit polling edge over Republican challenger Stacy Garrity in the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial race, with recent surveys showing leads ranging from 7 to 20 points amid the state’s battleground dynamics and voter turnout patterns. Traders price the most likely Democrat victory margin in the 15-20% range at 27%, reflecting…

Xavier Becerra holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for the California governorship due to his decisive advancement through the June 2026 top-two primary and the state’s longstanding Democratic advantage in statewide contests. As the Democratic nominee facing Republican Steve Hilton in the November general election, Becerra benefits from unified party support, a proven record…

Recent polls show the Texas gubernatorial contest between incumbent Republican Greg Abbott and Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa remaining highly competitive, with multiple July and early August 2026 surveys indicating leads of just 1–6 points or statistical ties. This closeness sustains balanced pricing on win probabilities while concentrating margin shares on narrow Republican advantages. Key dynamics…

Incumbent Democrat Maura Healey maintains a substantial lead in Massachusetts polling averages around 23 points heading into the November 2026 general election, consistent with the state’s strong Democratic tilt and her first-term record. The Republican primary on September 1 features Michael Minogue ahead of Brian Shortsleeve and others in recent surveys, yet no GOP contender…

Recent polls show the Texas gubernatorial contest between incumbent Republican Greg Abbott and Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa remaining highly competitive, with multiple July and early August 2026 surveys indicating leads of just 1–6 points or statistical ties. This closeness sustains balanced pricing on win probabilities while concentrating margin shares on narrow Republican advantages. Key dynamics…

Incumbent Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs faces Republican nominee Andy Biggs in the November 2026 Arizona gubernatorial contest, with recent head-to-head polls showing a narrow race marked by margins often in the low single digits. Biggs consolidated the Republican primary field after July 2026 voting, while Hobbs advanced unopposed, setting up a rematch dynamic in a…

Incumbent Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs faces Republican nominee Andy Biggs in the November 2026 Arizona gubernatorial contest, with recent head-to-head polls showing a narrow race marked by margins often in the low single digits. Biggs consolidated the Republican primary field after July 2026 voting, while Hobbs advanced unopposed, setting up a rematch dynamic in a…

Larry Rhoden secured the Republican nomination after prevailing in South Dakota’s first-ever gubernatorial primary runoff on July 28, advancing past businessman Toby Doeden to face Democrat Dan Ahlers in the November general election. The state’s consistent Republican tilt and limited general-election polling to date leave the precise margin of victory uncertain, with traders assigning roughly…