Platform: Polymarket

Florida’s 2026 open-seat gubernatorial contest remains tightly contested in trader pricing due to the Republican structural edge in registration and voting history since 1994 offset by polling volatility and voter focus on affordability, housing costs, and property insurance. Republican frontrunner Byron Donalds dominates primary polls ahead of the August 18 vote and holds a modest…

Colorado’s open gubernatorial seat, after term-limited Democratic incumbent Jared Polis, features Democrat Phil Weiser and Republican Victor Marx following their June 30, 2026 primaries. Weiser prevailed over Senator Michael Bennet in the Democratic contest while Marx edged out state legislators in the Republican primary. The state’s consistent Democratic lean in recent statewide races, combined with…

Florida’s 2026 open-seat gubernatorial contest remains tightly contested in trader pricing due to the Republican structural edge in registration and voting history since 1994 offset by polling volatility and voter focus on affordability, housing costs, and property insurance. Republican frontrunner Byron Donalds dominates primary polls ahead of the August 18 vote and holds a modest…

The Oregon governor’s race between incumbent Democrat Tina Kotek and Republican Christine Drazan remains closely contested ahead of the November 3 general election, with recent polling showing margins under 5 points and some surveys placing Drazan narrowly ahead. Low job approval for Kotek, a narrowing Democratic voter registration edge, and the absence of a significant…

The Oregon governor’s race between incumbent Democrat Tina Kotek and Republican Christine Drazan remains closely contested ahead of the November 3 general election, with recent polling showing margins under 5 points and some surveys placing Drazan narrowly ahead. Low job approval for Kotek, a narrowing Democratic voter registration edge, and the absence of a significant…

Florida’s 2026 open-seat gubernatorial contest remains tightly contested in trader pricing due to the Republican structural edge in registration and voting history since 1994 offset by polling volatility and voter focus on affordability, housing costs, and property insurance. Republican frontrunner Byron Donalds dominates primary polls ahead of the August 18 vote and holds a modest…

Incumbent Republican Phil Scott maintains strong personal popularity and crossover appeal in Vermont, a state with consistent Democratic advantages in presidential and legislative contests, which keeps general election margins tightly contested among traders. Recent University of New Hampshire polling shows Scott leading Democratic primary contenders Amanda Janoo and Aly Richards by double digits in hypothetical…

Amy Klobuchar’s strong positioning as the Democratic nominee in an open-seat race drives the current trader consensus on a comfortable but not overwhelming victory margin for Democrats. Minnesota’s partisan lean, combined with Klobuchar’s established statewide appeal and fundraising edge, keeps Republican win probabilities low while concentrating market interest on the 10–20% victory range. The Republican…

Incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro maintains a double-digit polling edge over Republican challenger Stacy Garrity in the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial race, with recent surveys showing leads ranging from 7 to 20 points amid the state’s battleground dynamics and voter turnout patterns. Traders price the most likely Democrat victory margin in the 15-20% range at 27%, reflecting…

Recent polls show the Texas gubernatorial contest between incumbent Republican Greg Abbott and Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa remaining highly competitive, with multiple July and early August 2026 surveys indicating leads of just 1–6 points or statistical ties. This closeness sustains balanced pricing on win probabilities while concentrating margin shares on narrow Republican advantages. Key dynamics…