Platform: Polymarket
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Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
Recent polling has positioned former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms with a modest lead over businessman Rick Jackson in Georgia’s open gubernatorial race, consistent with trader consensus reflected in current market pricing. Bottoms secured the Democratic nomination in the May primary, while Jackson advanced through the Republican runoff in June after defeating the field including…
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Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
Rob Sand holds a clear edge in the Iowa governor race as the Democratic state auditor facing an open seat after Kim Reynolds opted not to run. His uncontested primary and established statewide profile give him broad name recognition and crossover appeal in a state that has trended Republican but remains competitive in gubernatorial contests.…
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Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly one nominating election in the 2026 cycle?
Two confirmed Republican Senate primary defeats—Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas—have already occurred in the 2026 cycle, establishing a baseline of two incumbents denied renomination. Trader consensus around three or four total losses reflects expectations of one or two additional upsets in remaining primaries, fueled by strong conservative challenges in several states…
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Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island Senate election by 20%-25%?
Incumbent Democrat Jack Reed holds a consistent polling edge over Republican Raymond McKay in the 2026 Rhode Island Senate race, with recent University of New Hampshire surveys showing Reed at 52% to McKay’s 35%. Rhode Island’s deep Democratic lean, reinforced by the party’s unbroken Senate control since 2000, anchors trader pricing around double-digit Democratic margins.…
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Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 New Jersey Senate election by 0%-3%?
Cory Booker’s incumbency as the Democratic nominee against Republican Justin Murphy, following the June 2026 primaries, anchors trader expectations for a comfortable Democratic victory in the solidly blue state. New Jersey’s urban and suburban voter base has delivered consistent Democratic Senate wins, though narrower 2024 presidential margins and shifting minority voter patterns introduce some uncertainty…
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Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Jersey Senate election by 12%-15%?
Cory Booker’s incumbency as the Democratic nominee against Republican Justin Murphy, following the June 2026 primaries, anchors trader expectations for a comfortable Democratic victory in the solidly blue state. New Jersey’s urban and suburban voter base has delivered consistent Democratic Senate wins, though narrower 2024 presidential margins and shifting minority voter patterns introduce some uncertainty…
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Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Jersey Senate election by 9%-12%?
Cory Booker’s incumbency as the Democratic nominee against Republican Justin Murphy, following the June 2026 primaries, anchors trader expectations for a comfortable Democratic victory in the solidly blue state. New Jersey’s urban and suburban voter base has delivered consistent Democratic Senate wins, though narrower 2024 presidential margins and shifting minority voter patterns introduce some uncertainty…
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Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island Senate election by 15%-20%?
Incumbent Democrat Jack Reed holds a consistent polling edge over Republican Raymond McKay in the 2026 Rhode Island Senate race, with recent University of New Hampshire surveys showing Reed at 52% to McKay’s 35%. Rhode Island’s deep Democratic lean, reinforced by the party’s unbroken Senate control since 2000, anchors trader pricing around double-digit Democratic margins.…
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Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
The Texas Senate race stands as one of the most competitive contests in the 2026 cycle, with recent polls showing James Talarico holding slim leads or statistical ties against Ken Paxton amid elevated Democratic turnout motivation and independent voter shifts. Paxton’s May primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn, backed by a late Trump endorsement, consolidated…
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Will Russell Fry place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
The South Carolina special Republican primary to fill Lindsey Graham’s Senate seat features a crowded field that has kept second-place positioning fluid ahead of the August 11 first round. Ralph Norman’s established congressional record and endorsements have positioned him as the frontrunner for runner-up status among traders, while Darline Graham Nordone’s Trump endorsement and family…