Platform: Polymarket

Incumbent Democrat Jack Reed holds a consistent polling edge over Republican Raymond McKay in the 2026 Rhode Island Senate race, with recent University of New Hampshire surveys showing Reed at 52% to McKay’s 35%. Rhode Island’s deep Democratic lean, reinforced by the party’s unbroken Senate control since 2000, anchors trader pricing around double-digit Democratic margins.…

Cory Booker’s incumbency as the Democratic nominee against Republican Justin Murphy, following the June 2026 primaries, anchors trader expectations for a comfortable Democratic victory in the solidly blue state. New Jersey’s urban and suburban voter base has delivered consistent Democratic Senate wins, though narrower 2024 presidential margins and shifting minority voter patterns introduce some uncertainty…

Darline Graham Nordone leads recent polling in the fragmented August 11 special Republican primary field to replace the late Lindsey Graham on the general-election ballot, buoyed by name recognition, her appointment to the seat, and an endorsement from President Trump. The crowded contest includes U.S. Reps. Russell Fry and Ralph Norman, former Gov. Mark Sanford,…

The South Carolina special Republican primary to fill Lindsey Graham’s Senate seat features a crowded field that has kept second-place positioning fluid ahead of the August 11 first round. Ralph Norman’s established congressional record and endorsements have positioned him as the frontrunner for runner-up status among traders, while Darline Graham Nordone’s Trump endorsement and family…

Two confirmed Republican Senate primary defeats—Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas—have already occurred in the 2026 cycle, establishing a baseline of two incumbents denied renomination. Trader consensus around three or four total losses reflects expectations of one or two additional upsets in remaining primaries, fueled by strong conservative challenges in several states…

The Texas Senate race stands as one of the most competitive contests in the 2026 cycle, with recent polls showing James Talarico holding slim leads or statistical ties against Ken Paxton amid elevated Democratic turnout motivation and independent voter shifts. Paxton’s May primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn, backed by a late Trump endorsement, consolidated…

The Minnesota Democratic Senate primary on August 11 features a close contest between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, backed by the DFL party endorsement and progressive figures including Bernie Sanders, and Rep. Angie Craig, who leads in fundraising and holds support from moderate and establishment-aligned donors. Recent polls show the race within single digits, with results…

Republicans enter the 2026 midterms defending 22 seats against 13 Democratic-held contests, starting from a 53-47 majority. Midterm patterns under a Republican administration, combined with recent polling averages and generic ballot trends showing headwinds for the president’s party, have shaped trader views on potential net losses. Competitive races in Maine, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, and…

Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by retiring Democratic incumbent Tina Smith, carries a strong structural Democratic advantage rooted in the state’s consistent voting patterns since 2002. No Republican has won a Senate race there in over two decades, and recent statewide results—including Kamala Harris’s 2024 presidential margin and Amy Klobuchar’s comfortable reelection—reinforce the baseline.…

Republicans face a limited set of opportunities in states carried by Kamala Harris in 2024, with gubernatorial races in New Hampshire and Vermont standing out alongside scattered Senate contests. Incumbent advantages, candidate recruitment, and shifting primary dynamics have kept expectations modest, as seen in recent ratings adjustments from outlets tracking these cycles. Trader consensus splits…