Platform: Polymarket
-
Will Justin Story be the Republican nominee for FL-09?
The August 18 Republican primary for Florida’s 9th Congressional District features a crowded field seeking the nomination to challenge incumbent Democrat Darren Soto. A recent Victory Insights poll showed the top contenders statistically tied, with Jorge Martinez, Thomas Chalifoux, and Ben Butler each near 14 percent and Dan Green just behind. Market pricing nevertheless places…
-
Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 10,000-20,000?
The Clacton by-election on 13 August 2026, called after Nigel Farage’s resignation to re-contest the seat, features an electorate of roughly 78,000–80,000 and a record 34 candidates, including multiple novelty entrants. By-elections typically see depressed participation versus general elections, and the mid-August timing during summer holidays further reduces mobilization. Recent constituency polling assumes low engagement,…
-
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs maintains a clear lead in the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial race, reflected in trader pricing for a Democratic victory. Hobbs secured her nomination unopposed in the July 21 primary, while Republican Congressman Andy Biggs consolidated the GOP side with roughly 74% of the vote against David Schweikert. Recent polls, including an AARP…
-
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Lula da Silva holds the strongest position in Brazil’s October 2026 presidential race as the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate seeking a fourth term, backed by recent expansions of debt-relief programs and fuel subsidies that have helped stabilize voter sentiment. Recent polls from Quaest, Datafolha, and others show him leading first-round intentions at 39-44% and defeating…
-
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Early positioning in the 2028 presidential race reflects a wide-open field more than two years before primaries, with no formal candidacies declared and traders pricing in uncertainty around party dynamics, voter coalitions, and potential primary challenges. JD Vance holds the lead as sitting vice president with institutional advantages and reported private support from former President…
-
Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2027?
As of August 2026, no major-party contenders have formally announced 2028 presidential bids, with exploratory activity limited to lesser-known FEC filers and one Libertarian exploratory committee. Trader attention centers on timing around the November 2026 midterms, after which announcements often accelerate in the first months of 2027. Potential Republican names frequently discussed include sitting figures…
-
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in August?
President Trump’s August 2026 schedule centers on routine White House duties, including executive time, policy meetings, executive order signings, and swearing-in ceremonies such as for the attorney general. He has conducted multiple tele-rallies supporting Republican Senate and congressional candidates while traveling domestically to sites in New Jersey, California, Nevada, and Ohio, with an upcoming trip…
-
Will CZ post 200+ posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
CZ maintains a moderate posting rhythm on X, typically sharing occasional crypto market commentary, BNB ecosystem updates, and project notes tied to Giggle Academy and YZi Labs rather than daily threads or high-volume engagement. Recent activity in early August 2026 shows roughly a dozen posts across the first week, consistent with historical patterns that rarely…
-
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
Romania’s NATO-coordinated shootdowns of three suspected Russian drones over its Black Sea airspace in late July 2026 mark the most recent verified intercepts, with F-16s under allied command destroying the aircraft after repeated incursions linked to strikes on Ukrainian targets. These incidents followed earlier 2026 airspace violations and prompted Romania to summon Russia’s envoy while…
-
Will Bengt Bergqvist be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Jämtland Härjedalen?
Bengt Bergqvist, the sitting Social Democratic chair of Region Jämtland Härjedalen’s regional board, holds the strongest trader consensus at 75.5 percent, reflecting his established incumbency, party leadership role, and the typical advantages regional incumbents enjoy ahead of the September 2026 elections. Opposition figures such as Robert Hamberg of the Moderates trail at 9 percent, consistent…