Platform: Polymarket
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Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
The narrow Republican Senate majority of 53-47 heading into the 2026 midterms keeps the contest tightly balanced, with Democrats needing a net gain of four seats to flip control. Multiple open seats from incumbent retirements on both sides, combined with competitive races in swing states and special elections in places like Florida and Ohio, create…
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Will Russell Fry win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
The crowded 10-candidate field for South Carolina’s August 11 special Republican primary, triggered by Lindsey Graham’s death, has produced a fragmented contest with no candidate positioned for a first-round majority. Darline Graham Nordone benefits from her interim Senate appointment by Governor Henry McMaster and President Trump’s endorsement, yet recent straw polls show Reps. Russell Fry…
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Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?
The Minnesota Democratic Senate primary on August 11 features a close contest between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, backed by the DFL party endorsement and progressive figures including Bernie Sanders, and Rep. Angie Craig, who leads in fundraising and holds support from moderate and establishment-aligned donors. Recent polls show the race within single digits, with results…
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Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
Two confirmed Republican Senate primary defeats—Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas—have already occurred in the 2026 cycle, establishing a baseline of two incumbents denied renomination. Trader consensus around three or four total losses reflects expectations of one or two additional upsets in remaining primaries, fueled by strong conservative challenges in several states…
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Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?
Republican incumbent Ashley Moody maintains a consistent lead in polling for Florida’s 2026 special Senate election, with recent University of North Florida surveys from July showing her ahead by 8–10 points against Democratic primary contenders Alex Vindman and Angie Nixon. Florida’s partisan lean, demonstrated by Republican presidential margins in recent cycles, combined with Moody’s position…
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Will Daniel Gobeil win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election?
The tight contest in the Chicoutimi—Le Fjord federal by-election, set for August 31, 2026, centers on Bloc Québécois candidate Caroline Dubé and Liberal Daniel Gobeil, with trader consensus reflecting their near parity amid the riding’s history of fragmented three-way results. Gobeil’s agricultural background and local roots have anchored Liberal support, while Dubé’s platform has sustained…
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Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro remains the leading outcome in trader assessments for Venezuela’s head of state at the end of 2026, reflecting institutional continuity after his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces. Venezuelan state bodies, including the Supreme Tribunal and National Assembly, continue to recognize him as the constitutional president while Delcy Rodríguez serves only in an…
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Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Renan Santos leads trader consensus for third place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote because recent national polls place the Mission Party nominee in the low single digits—often 3–5 percent—frequently ahead of or tied with other non-Bolsonaro right-wing options. His support has grown among younger voters and social-media users through an anti-establishment, pro-market message…
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Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?
Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran conflict that began February 28, 2026, have kept the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to most commercial traffic, driving the 80.5% market-implied probability on 0-20 daily transits. Recent ship-tracking data from IMF PortWatch and Lloyd’s List show averages of just 2-8 vessels per day in early August, versus pre-crisis…
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Will White House post 140-159 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
Recent executive actions, press briefings, and policy rollouts under the current administration have sustained elevated activity levels on the official @WhiteHouse account, consistent with Pew data showing posting rates more than double those of the prior term. This supports the tight contest between the 180-199 and 200+ ranges, as weekly totals typically cluster near 25-30…