Platform: Polymarket
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Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei holds the leading position in the market following his March 2026 selection by Iran’s Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes during the 2026 Iran war. This rapid transition, backed by security institutions including the IRGC, reflects trader consensus on continuity in the short…
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Will there be exactly 7 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?
Recent UK parliamentary by-elections have been driven by Labour resignations amid internal leadership tensions, including Andrew Gwynne’s January 2026 exit for health reasons and Josh Simons stepping aside in May to enable Andy Burnham’s candidacy in Makerfield. Additional vacancies arose in June from SNP MPs resigning after the Scottish Parliament elections. With four contests already…
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Will the Democratic Party win the NY-16 House seat?
Incumbent Democrat George Latimer holds a commanding position in New York’s 16th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflecting the seat’s strong Democratic lean and the challenger’s limited viability. Recent statewide results show consistent double-digit Democratic margins, while Latimer secured the Democratic nomination without significant opposition and maintains fundraising and institutional advantages…
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Will Jordan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
US diplomatic engagement under the second Trump administration continues to drive momentum for expanding the Abraham Accords, with repeated calls in 2026 for Saudi Arabia and Qatar to normalize relations with Israel, often tied to parallel Iran negotiations and security guarantees. Kazakhstan completed its accession in early 2026 as the first Central Asian participant, while…
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Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei holds the leading position in the market following his March 2026 selection by Iran’s Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes during the 2026 Iran war. This rapid transition, backed by security institutions including the IRGC, reflects trader consensus on continuity in the short…
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Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?
Lula da Silva holds a consistent first-round polling edge of roughly 5–12 points over Flávio Bolsonaro in August 2026 surveys, reflecting the incumbent’s structural advantages as he seeks a fourth term. Recent party conventions formalized Lula’s ticket with Geraldo Alckmin and confirmed Flávio as the Liberal Party nominee backed by his ineligible father, Jair Bolsonaro,…
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Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Sweden’s September 13 general election is approaching with consistent polling showing the Social Democrat-led centre-left opposition bloc ahead of the incumbent centre-right Tidö government by roughly eight points. Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats, polling near 32-34 percent as the largest party, anchor this lead and position her to lead coalition negotiations if the result holds. Trader…
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Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Sweden’s September 13 general election is approaching with consistent polling showing the Social Democrat-led centre-left opposition bloc ahead of the incumbent centre-right Tidö government by roughly eight points. Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats, polling near 32-34 percent as the largest party, anchor this lead and position her to lead coalition negotiations if the result holds. Trader…
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Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing at 31% after a July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction yet shortened her eligibility ban enough to clear a path for her 2027 candidacy, which she immediately confirmed while pursuing further appeals. This development has consolidated support for the National Rally amid voter fatigue with Macron-era…
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Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Turnout Up or Down?
The upcoming September 6, 2026, Landtag election in Sachsen-Anhalt features unusually high political stakes, with the AfD polling at 41-42%—nearly double its 2021 result—and positioned for a potential plurality or outright majority under the state’s proportional system. This surge has triggered national attention, coalition negotiations among other parties, and procedural reforms aimed at limiting AfD…