Platform: Polymarket
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Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
Most countries that have not recognized Israel—primarily Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation members such as Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Pakistan, and several others—continue to link any diplomatic normalization to progress on Palestinian statehood or a comprehensive resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. No new formal recognitions occurred in 2026 following the Abraham Accords era, with…
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Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei holds the leading position in the market following his March 2026 selection by Iran’s Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes during the 2026 Iran war. This rapid transition, backed by security institutions including the IRGC, reflects trader consensus on continuity in the short…
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Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 30,000-40,000?
The Clacton by-election on 13 August 2026, called after Nigel Farage’s resignation to re-contest the seat, features an electorate of roughly 78,000–80,000 and a record 34 candidates, including multiple novelty entrants. By-elections typically see depressed participation versus general elections, and the mid-August timing during summer holidays further reduces mobilization. Recent constituency polling assumes low engagement,…
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Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei holds the leading position in the market following his March 2026 selection by Iran’s Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes during the 2026 Iran war. This rapid transition, backed by security institutions including the IRGC, reflects trader consensus on continuity in the short…
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Iran leadership change by September 30?
Iran’s Supreme Leader succession unfolded rapidly after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February 2026 amid U.S.-Israeli strikes. The Assembly of Experts selected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March following an interim tripartite council that included President Masoud Pezeshkian. Mojtaba has maintained a low public profile since taking office, with state media…
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Will Cook Islands Party win the most seats in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?
The August 12, 2026, Cook Islands general election features a fragmented field of 63 candidates across major parties including the governing Cook Islands Party, the Democratic Party, and the Cook Islands United Party, plus smaller groups and independents contesting 24 seats in a system that typically requires coalition support for a 13-seat majority. Parliament dissolved…
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Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Early positioning in the 2028 presidential race reflects a wide-open field more than two years before primaries, with no formal candidacies declared and traders pricing in uncertainty around party dynamics, voter coalitions, and potential primary challenges. JD Vance holds the lead as sitting vice president with institutional advantages and reported private support from former President…
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Will Frank Chikane be the next mayor of Johannesburg?
Helen Zille, the Democratic Alliance’s Johannesburg mayoral candidate, holds a narrow edge in trader pricing amid a fragmented field ahead of South Africa’s 4 November 2026 local government elections. Her unconventional campaign tactics, including high-profile stunts highlighting service delivery failures, have generated sustained visibility and pressured the incumbent ANC-led administration. Herman Mashaba’s ActionSA candidacy and…
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Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
KPRF holds an overwhelming market lead for second place in Russia’s September 2026 State Duma elections because of its established regional organizations, historical voter base, and consistent polling presence alongside LDPR as the main contenders behind United Russia. Recent VTsIOM surveys have shown New People briefly leading or tying at around 13 percent, ahead of…
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Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
The September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election features Die Linke as the clear market leader, reflecting consistent leads in recent city-specific polling trends where the party has risen to around 20 percent amid gains among younger voters and in western districts. CDU follows as the main center-right contender but trails in current surveys, while AfD…