Platform: Polymarket
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Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
Iliana Iotova holds a commanding position in the October 2026 Bulgarian presidential race as acting president since Rumen Radev’s January resignation to contest parliamentary polls. Her endorsement by the ruling Progressive Bulgaria coalition—fresh off its April parliamentary majority—and the Bulgarian Socialist Party has consolidated broad institutional and voter support. Andrey Gyurov, the caretaker prime minister…
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Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?
Russian forces continue incremental advances in Donetsk Oblast through infiltration tactics and glide bomb strikes, with recent gains focused near Kostyantynivka and preparations for operations toward Slovyansk and Kramatorsk as part of efforts to pressure Ukraine’s Fortress Belt. Ground progress remains slow, averaging under 2 square kilometers per day in July 2026, reflecting positional warfare…
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Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?
Russian forces continue incremental advances in Donetsk Oblast through infiltration tactics and glide bomb strikes, with recent gains focused near Kostyantynivka and preparations for operations toward Slovyansk and Kramatorsk as part of efforts to pressure Ukraine’s Fortress Belt. Ground progress remains slow, averaging under 2 square kilometers per day in July 2026, reflecting positional warfare…
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Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
Elon Musk’s established high-volume posting cadence on X—typically 20-30 tweets per day amid business updates, replies, and commentary—anchors trader consensus around the 160-219 tweet range for the August 11-18 window, with those three brackets holding the highest implied probabilities. Recent daily tallies, including 41 posts on August 9 tied to Starlink and company topics, reflect…
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Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
**Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was assassinated in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes amid the Iran conflict, triggering a swift succession process that installed his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader by early March.** The official @khamenei_ir account has since operated primarily as an archive, reposting historical statements rather than issuing new content from…
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Will Lisa Flinth be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Skåne?
The September 13, 2026, regional election remains the decisive catalyst for the Skåne Regional Board Chair market, with results determining seat distribution, governing coalitions, and the subsequent appointment of the executive committee chair under Sweden’s proportional system. Incumbent Carl Johan Sonesson (Moderate Party) benefits from continuity in healthcare and fiscal policy since 2018, while Henrik…
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Will Austin Rogers be the FL-02 Republican nominee?
Austin Rogers leads the FL-02 Republican primary market at 67% amid an open-seat contest to replace retiring Rep. Neal Dunn, with Keith Gross at 31.5% and the remaining candidates—including Evan Power, Jim Norton, and several others—trailing sharply. Rogers, a Panama City native and former general counsel to Sen. Rick Scott, has gained ground from a…
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Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?
Ongoing military operations, including intensified Russian drone and missile strikes in early August 2026 alongside incremental Russian territorial gains, continue to dominate the conflict with no verified diplomatic breakthroughs in recent weeks. Core disputes over territory, security guarantees, and sanctions remain unresolved after multiple 2026 negotiation rounds, including Geneva talks earlier in the year, while…
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Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?
Russian forces have conducted sustained offensive operations around Kostyantynivka, a key logistical hub in Ukraine’s Donbas “fortress belt,” with infiltrations into the city beginning in late 2025 and intensifying through mid-2026. Russian claims of full capture in early July 2026 remain unconfirmed by independent assessments, which describe ongoing urban combat, intermixed positions, and Ukrainian counterattacks…
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Will Alfred Cannan be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?
The upcoming House of Keys general election on September 24, 2026, anchors trader sentiment for the next Chief Minister, as the incoming members will elect the position shortly afterward under established constitutional procedures. Incumbent Alfred Cannan leads market pricing due to his ongoing tenure since 2021 and record on economic strategy, though the open field…