Platform: Polymarket
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Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?
The Minnesota Democratic Senate primary on August 11 features a close contest between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, backed by the DFL party endorsement and progressive figures including Bernie Sanders, and Rep. Angie Craig, who leads in fundraising and holds support from moderate and establishment-aligned donors. Recent polls show the race within single digits, with results…
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Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Likud holds a narrow lead in recent Israeli polls as the party most likely to secure the largest Knesset bloc ahead of the October 27 election, reflecting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s consolidation within his party and incremental gains in voter support. Yashar, led by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot, remains competitive at roughly even odds…
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Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
The tight race between Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and J.D. Vance reflects trader assessment of their respective administration roles and appeal within Republican primary dynamics. As HHS secretary, Kennedy has consolidated support among voters prioritizing health policy shifts and outsider credentials, while Vance, serving as vice president, benefits from institutional ties and continuity with the…
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Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
The tight race between Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and J.D. Vance reflects trader assessment of their respective administration roles and appeal within Republican primary dynamics. As HHS secretary, Kennedy has consolidated support among voters prioritizing health policy shifts and outsider credentials, while Vance, serving as vice president, benefits from institutional ties and continuity with the…
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Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
Russian forces have conducted sustained offensive operations around Kostyantynivka, a key logistical hub in Ukraine’s Donbas “fortress belt,” with infiltrations into the city beginning in late 2025 and intensifying through mid-2026. Russian claims of full capture in early July 2026 remain unconfirmed by independent assessments, which describe ongoing urban combat, intermixed positions, and Ukrainian counterattacks…
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Nothing Ever Happens: August
Traders assign “Nothing” a 91.5% probability in the August market because early-month developments have remained routine and contained, with no sudden escalations in ongoing conflicts, major legislative surprises, or unexpected crises. President Trump has issued targeted executive orders on immigration enforcement and agency nominations, while the Senate completed a narrow confirmation vote for the attorney…
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2026 Balance of Power: Other
Traders see the 2026 midterms as closely contested because Democrats hold an early edge in generic ballot polling and special election swings while Republicans defend narrow majorities in both chambers under the historical midterm penalty for the president’s party. With 35 Senate seats up—including 22 Republican-held—and Democrats needing a net gain of roughly four seats…
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Will the Republican Party win the MN-04 House seat?
Incumbent Democrat Betty McCollum’s long tenure since 2001 and consistent double-digit victories, including 67 percent in 2024, anchor Democratic dominance in Minnesota’s 4th district, which covers the Saint Paul metro area. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and a primary field of lesser-known challengers. Recent DFL endorsement and endorsements…
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Will Angie Craig win Hennepin County in the Minnesota Democratic Senate primary?
Peggy Flanagan holds a commanding position in the Hennepin County portion of Minnesota’s August 11 Democratic-Farmer-Labor primary for U.S. Senate, driven by her recent expansion of a double-digit lead in statewide polling, the party’s official endorsement, and backing from retiring Sen. Tina Smith along with organized labor. As lieutenant governor and a progressive with deep…
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Will Trump’s approval rating hit 35% in 2026?
Trump’s approval rating trajectory in 2026 will likely hinge on economic performance, legislative progress on priorities such as immigration enforcement and trade policy, and responses to any emerging domestic or foreign challenges. As midterm elections approach in November, congressional outcomes and associated voter sentiment in battleground areas could exert downward pressure if results signal dissatisfaction.…