Platform: Polymarket
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Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei holds the leading position in the market following his March 2026 selection by Iran’s Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes during the 2026 Iran war. This rapid transition, backed by security institutions including the IRGC, reflects trader consensus on continuity in the short…
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Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?
Spain’s national government has attributed the late-July Ceuta crossings of roughly 50,000–80,000 people primarily to human-trafficking networks and social-media rumors rather than Moroccan state action, while publicly stressing bilateral cooperation on rapid voluntary returns. Ceuta’s regional president has voiced suspicions of facilitation, yet Madrid has avoided formal diplomatic accusations, consistent with longstanding incentives to maintain…
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Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Mary Peltola’s January 2026 entry into the race against incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan has kept the Alaska Senate contest competitive, with recent polls showing the Democrat narrowly ahead or within a few points in a state that uses ranked-choice voting and a top-four primary on August 18. Peltola’s substantial fundraising advantage, including $6.9 million raised…
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Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?
Israel’s October 27, 2026, legislative election, following Knesset dissolution in July, drives Netanyahu’s elevated 26% odds, as he serves as interim prime minister while facing corruption trials, security criticisms, and coalition uncertainty that could end his tenure before 2027. Spain’s June non-binding parliamentary resolution urging Sánchez’s resignation amid corruption probes contributes to his 5.3% share,…
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Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
The Democratic presidential nomination field for 2028 remains wide open, with traders pricing Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a tight cluster near the top. This reflects an early post-2024 cycle environment lacking an obvious frontrunner or consensus choice among party figures. Multiple governors and senators continue to build profiles through state-level roles,…
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Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei holds the leading position in the market following his March 2026 selection by Iran’s Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes during the 2026 Iran war. This rapid transition, backed by security institutions including the IRGC, reflects trader consensus on continuity in the short…
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Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Milei holds a narrow lead in trader consensus for the 2027 Argentine presidential election as the incumbent pursuing re-election under La Libertad Avanza, supported by his administration’s fiscal austerity measures, inflation reduction from prior highs, and 2025 midterm congressional gains. Kicillof trails closely as the leading Peronist challenger and Buenos Aires governor, with opposition efforts…
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Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island Senate election by 30% or more?
Incumbent Democrat Jack Reed holds a consistent polling edge over Republican Raymond McKay in the 2026 Rhode Island Senate race, with recent University of New Hampshire surveys showing Reed at 52% to McKay’s 35%. Rhode Island’s deep Democratic lean, reinforced by the party’s unbroken Senate control since 2000, anchors trader pricing around double-digit Democratic margins.…
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Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
The tight race between Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and J.D. Vance reflects trader assessment of their respective administration roles and appeal within Republican primary dynamics. As HHS secretary, Kennedy has consolidated support among voters prioritizing health policy shifts and outsider credentials, while Vance, serving as vice president, benefits from institutional ties and continuity with the…
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Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Early positioning in the 2028 presidential race reflects a wide-open field more than two years before primaries, with no formal candidacies declared and traders pricing in uncertainty around party dynamics, voter coalitions, and potential primary challenges. JD Vance holds the lead as sitting vice president with institutional advantages and reported private support from former President…