Platform: Polymarket
-
Will Ralph Norman win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
The crowded 10-candidate field for South Carolina’s August 11 special Republican primary, triggered by Lindsey Graham’s death, has produced a fragmented contest with no candidate positioned for a first-round majority. Darline Graham Nordone benefits from her interim Senate appointment by Governor Henry McMaster and President Trump’s endorsement, yet recent straw polls show Reps. Russell Fry…
-
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?
**Ongoing fragility in the October 2025 Gaza ceasefire, part of President Trump’s 20-point plan, stems primarily from stalled Phase 2 implementation centered on Hamas disarmament and Israeli troop withdrawal.** Negotiations remain deadlocked over sequencing, with Israel refusing withdrawal until Hamas fully disarms and Hamas conditioning further steps on complete Phase 1 execution, including sustained aid…
-
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, maintains a commanding lead in the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race due to his established record in Brazil’s most populous state and consistent polling margins of 13–18 points over Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party in recent surveys from July and early August. Traders price his re-election probability…
-
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?
Ongoing U.S.-mediated talks in Rome, including the seventh round concluded around August 7, focus on pilot withdrawal zones and border issues, yet coincide with continued IDF strikes in southern Lebanon after two soldiers were killed there on August 5. These developments, alongside Hezbollah’s rejection of prior disarmament frameworks and sporadic cross-border incidents since the conditional…
-
Will Rick Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
The tight race between Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and J.D. Vance reflects trader assessment of their respective administration roles and appeal within Republican primary dynamics. As HHS secretary, Kennedy has consolidated support among voters prioritizing health policy shifts and outsider credentials, while Vance, serving as vice president, benefits from institutional ties and continuity with the…
-
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?
Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran conflict that began February 28, 2026, have kept the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to most commercial traffic, driving the 80.5% market-implied probability on 0-20 daily transits. Recent ship-tracking data from IMF PortWatch and Lloyd’s List show averages of just 2-8 vessels per day in early August, versus pre-crisis…
-
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Early positioning in the 2028 presidential race reflects a wide-open field more than two years before primaries, with no formal candidacies declared and traders pricing in uncertainty around party dynamics, voter coalitions, and potential primary challenges. JD Vance holds the lead as sitting vice president with institutional advantages and reported private support from former President…
-
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei holds the leading position in the market following his March 2026 selection by Iran’s Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes during the 2026 Iran war. This rapid transition, backed by security institutions including the IRGC, reflects trader consensus on continuity in the short…
-
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
The Islamic Republic demonstrated institutional resilience after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s death amid February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes and ensuing unrest, with security structures remaining intact and opposition groups fragmented. Reza Pahlavi, operating from exile as a symbolic advocate for secular democratic transition, encountered setbacks including internal divisions, donor pullback, and limited organized support inside Iran,…
-
Will White House post 200+ posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
Recent executive actions, press briefings, and policy rollouts under the current administration have sustained elevated activity levels on the official @WhiteHouse account, consistent with Pew data showing posting rates more than double those of the prior term. This supports the tight contest between the 180-199 and 200+ ranges, as weekly totals typically cluster near 25-30…