Platform: Polymarket
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Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Russian forces have conducted sustained offensive operations around Kostyantynivka, a key logistical hub in Ukraine’s Donbas “fortress belt,” with infiltrations into the city beginning in late 2025 and intensifying through mid-2026. Russian claims of full capture in early July 2026 remain unconfirmed by independent assessments, which describe ongoing urban combat, intermixed positions, and Ukrainian counterattacks…
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Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?
Most countries that have not recognized Israel—primarily Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation members such as Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Pakistan, and several others—continue to link any diplomatic normalization to progress on Palestinian statehood or a comprehensive resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. No new formal recognitions occurred in 2026 following the Abraham Accords era, with…
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Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
Lee Jae-myung took office in June 2025 following the National Assembly’s swift rejection of martial law and Yoon Suk-yeol’s subsequent impeachment, entering with a Democratic Party supermajority that has remained intact. This legislative edge raises the threshold for any impeachment motion to advance to the Constitutional Court, a barrier not currently approached by opposition parties…
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Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
Zelenskyy maintains a steady cadence of updates on X as Ukraine’s president, typically issuing multiple daily posts in Ukrainian and English on frontline developments, diplomatic outreach, air defense needs, and responses to Russian strikes. This pattern, reinforced by the week’s focus on North Korean reinforcements, Saudi coordination, and military planning, aligns closely with the 60-79…
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Will the Green Party (MP) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
Recent opinion polls for Sweden’s September 13, 2026, parliamentary election show the Social Democrats holding a clear lead near 32–34 percent, with the Sweden Democrats consistently placed second around 19–21 percent and the Moderate Party third near 17–18 percent. This stable ordering across multiple surveys from May through July has anchored trader expectations that the…
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China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Persistent maritime friction in the South China Sea continues to shape trader views on the low probability of a direct China-Philippines military clash before 2027. Repeated July 2026 confrontations at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal involved water cannons, vessel maneuvers, and mutual accusations between coast guard forces, but stopped short of armed engagement between…
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Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Jersey Senate election by 21% or more?
Cory Booker’s incumbency as the Democratic nominee against Republican Justin Murphy, following the June 2026 primaries, anchors trader expectations for a comfortable Democratic victory in the solidly blue state. New Jersey’s urban and suburban voter base has delivered consistent Democratic Senate wins, though narrower 2024 presidential margins and shifting minority voter patterns introduce some uncertainty…
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Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?
Heightened U.S. immigration enforcement under the current administration has driven recent surges in arrests, including high-profile detentions of local officials and activists opposing federal operations, contributing to trader focus on outcomes such as Mahmoud Khalil. Separate legal developments, including ongoing DOJ reviews and past attempts to pursue charges against former intelligence and law enforcement figures…
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Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?
Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran conflict that began February 28, 2026, have kept the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to most commercial traffic, driving the 80.5% market-implied probability on 0-20 daily transits. Recent ship-tracking data from IMF PortWatch and Lloyd’s List show averages of just 2-8 vessels per day in early August, versus pre-crisis…
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Will the Republican Party win the TX-05 House seat?
The TX-05 race centers on incumbent Republican Lance Gooden seeking re-election in a district encompassing southeastern Dallas-Fort Worth suburbs and East Texas counties. Forecasters rate it Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with its R+10 partisan voting index and Gooden’s 64% win in 2024. Redistricting added some urban precincts but preserved the overall Republican baseline, reinforced…