Platform: Polymarket
-
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-04 House seat?
Republican incumbent Pat Fallon holds a commanding position in Texas’s 4th congressional district after securing renomination in the March 2026 primary and benefiting from post-2025 redistricting that strengthened the seat’s Republican lean. Ratings from outlets including the Cook Political Report classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district’s R+12 partisan voting…
-
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Sweden’s September 13 general election is approaching with consistent polling showing the Social Democrat-led centre-left opposition bloc ahead of the incumbent centre-right Tidö government by roughly eight points. Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats, polling near 32-34 percent as the largest party, anchor this lead and position her to lead coalition negotiations if the result holds. Trader…
-
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing at 31% after a July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction yet shortened her eligibility ban enough to clear a path for her 2027 candidacy, which she immediately confirmed while pursuing further appeals. This development has consolidated support for the National Rally amid voter fatigue with Macron-era…
-
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 10%?
Lula da Silva holds a consistent first-round polling edge of roughly 5–12 points over Flávio Bolsonaro in August 2026 surveys, reflecting the incumbent’s structural advantages as he seeks a fourth term. Recent party conventions formalized Lula’s ticket with Geraldo Alckmin and confirmed Flávio as the Liberal Party nominee backed by his ineligible father, Jair Bolsonaro,…
-
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?
PL leads trader consensus at 85.5% for the most seats in Brazil’s October 4, 2026 Senate election renewing 54 of 81 seats under first-past-the-post rules in each state. The party’s current 16-seat bloc, aggressive candidate recruitment across major states, and alignment with Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential bid provide structural edges that traders view as durable. Recent…
-
Will Christopher Brooks be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
Michele Tafoya holds a commanding position in the August 11, 2026, Minnesota Republican U.S. Senate primary due to her substantial early polling advantage and name recognition as a former sports broadcaster. Recent SurveyUSA surveys of likely Republican primary voters showed her at 48 percent support against a scattered field, including former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze,…
-
Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Early positioning in the 2028 presidential race reflects a wide-open field more than two years before primaries, with no formal candidacies declared and traders pricing in uncertainty around party dynamics, voter coalitions, and potential primary challenges. JD Vance holds the lead as sitting vice president with institutional advantages and reported private support from former President…
-
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Negotiations between the United States and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program center on the fate of its highly enriched uranium stockpile, with Washington seeking limits or removal in exchange for sanctions relief and other concessions. Draft understandings reached in May and June 2026 outlined mechanisms for Iran to dilute or address the material—potentially on its…
-
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated there is no point in a direct meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy until lower-level experts reach preliminary agreements on core issues such as territory, security guarantees, and ceasefires. Recent US-mediated negotiator talks in locations including Abu Dhabi produced limited progress on prisoner exchanges but stalled on major…
-
Will Abbey Zieska be the MN-05 Republican nominee?
Dalia Al-Aqidi leads the MN-05 Republican primary with strong trader consensus driven by her Republican Party endorsement, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1 million raised, and endorsements from groups including the CD5 Republican Party and Minnesota Young Republicans. As the 2024 nominee challenging incumbent Ilhan Omar, she benefits from name recognition and organizational support ahead of…