Platform: Polymarket
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Will the Republican Party win the MI-12 House seat?
The Michigan 12th congressional district’s strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index around D+21, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5 percent. Incumbent Rashida Tlaib secured renomination in the August 4, 2026 primary with roughly 74 percent of the vote against limited challengers, while Republican James Hooper advanced unopposed.…
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Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
Israel maintains a military presence in southern Lebanon amid the 2026 Lebanon war with Hezbollah, following a U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreed in April 2026 and extended in June. Withdrawal hinges on Hezbollah’s full evacuation south of the Litani River, disarmament verification, and Lebanese Armed Forces assuming control of designated zones. Recent incidents, including an early August…
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Will Juan Salvador Santos Cedillo win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election?
Tlaxcala’s 2027 gubernatorial contest remains wide open more than a year before voters decide, producing a crowded field that keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered among frontrunners. Alfonso Sánchez García and Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera lead trader pricing, reflecting their early positioning and visibility, while dozens of other declared or potential candidates dilute support across the…
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Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?
Mohammed bin Salman continues to serve as Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader in his roles as Crown Prince and Prime Minister under King Salman, whose age and health remain central to succession considerations in the absolute monarchy. Recent cabinet sessions chaired by the king and MBS, combined with ongoing advancement of Vision 2030’s final phase…
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Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
The Democratic presidential nomination field for 2028 remains wide open, with traders pricing Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a tight cluster near the top. This reflects an early post-2024 cycle environment lacking an obvious frontrunner or consensus choice among party figures. Multiple governors and senators continue to build profiles through state-level roles,…
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Will the Democratic Party win the VA-08 House seat?
Virginia’s 8th Congressional District maintains a strong Democratic lean rooted in its Northern Virginia suburban base, where recent presidential voting margins have favored the party by double digits. Incumbent Don Beyer secured renomination in the August 2026 Democratic primary with a commanding share of the vote and now faces Republican Tony Sabio in the November…
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Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Sweden’s September 13 general election is approaching with consistent polling showing the Social Democrat-led centre-left opposition bloc ahead of the incumbent centre-right Tidö government by roughly eight points. Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats, polling near 32-34 percent as the largest party, anchor this lead and position her to lead coalition negotiations if the result holds. Trader…
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Will Zohran Mamdani be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
The absence of a declared 2028 Democratic presidential frontrunner has left trader consensus on the vice-presidential nominee widely dispersed, with no outcome exceeding low double digits. Leading names such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Gretchen Whitmer draw support from distinct bases—progressive activists and Midwest swing-state strength, respectively—while others like Pete Buttigieg and Andy Beshear reflect geographic…
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Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Gadi Eizenkot leads trader consensus as the likely next Israeli prime minister following the October 27, 2026 Knesset election, reflecting his recent polling surge with the Yashar party, which has drawn even or ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud. Eizenkot’s positioning stems from his record as former IDF chief of staff, personal losses during the Gaza…
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Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?
Recent US-Iran diplomatic efforts center on implementing a June 2026 memorandum of understanding to end hostilities, including Strait of Hormuz access, with a 60-day window for broader nuclear and sanctions talks. Trader pricing assigns nearly half the probability to no meeting by September 30 amid mixed signals, including paused strikes, Iranian denials of imminent direct…