Platform: Polymarket
-
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
California’s Proposition 40, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents and trusts with net worth above $1 billion as of late 2026, qualified for the November ballot after signature gathering despite vocal opposition from tech billionaires and Governor Gavin Newsom. Trader consensus favoring rejection at 69.5% reflects anticipated legal challenges to its constitutionality and retroactive…
-
Will US withdraw from NATO by August 31?
Legal barriers established by the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act require either a two-thirds Senate vote or congressional legislation for any U.S. withdrawal from NATO, limiting unilateral executive action. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing presidential rhetoric criticizing alliance burden-sharing and conditioning commitments on higher European defense spending or support for U.S. operations, alongside announced troop reductions…
-
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay
Russia and Ukraine enter this high-stakes negotiation matchup with entrenched positions that mirror teams locked in a defensive stalemate, where core issues like territorial concessions and security guarantees remain unresolved despite U.S. mediation attempts. Recent short ceasefires, including the May 2026 Victory Day pause and earlier Easter halt, collapsed amid mutual violations and persistent airstrikes,…
-
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
The official @khamenei_ir account, associated with statements from Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, maintains historically low posting volume on X, with activity centered on archival or occasional reposts rather than daily updates. Recent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, including his August 9 appointment of a new Supreme National Security Council secretary, has not…
-
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei holds the leading position in the market following his March 2026 selection by Iran’s Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes during the 2026 Iran war. This rapid transition, backed by security institutions including the IRGC, reflects trader consensus on continuity in the short…
-
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 5%?
Francesca Hong, the democratic socialist state representative, holds a clear lead in late polls for the August 11 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary after multiple high-profile dropouts narrowed the field. Recent withdrawals by former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes amid allegations and Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez over campaign finance issues shifted support toward Hong, who now polls…
-
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?
Recent June CPI data showed headline inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year from May’s 4.2% peak, driven by a sharp drop in energy prices after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, while core CPI fell to 2.6%. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5–3.75% amid concerns that inflation may reaccelerate later in 2026, with…
-
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Recent US-Iran diplomacy centers on the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which established a 60-day (extendable) framework for talks after months of conflict that disrupted the Strait of Hormuz. The MoU calls for immediate steps on navigation rights, sanctions relief tied to verified nuclear steps, working groups on oversight and missiles, and de-escalation in…
-
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-05 House seat?
The heavily Democratic tilt of New York’s 5th congressional district, combined with longtime incumbent Gregory Meeks’s unopposed Democratic primary victory in June 2026, anchors trader consensus around a strong Democratic outcome. Meeks has represented the seat since 1998 and captured roughly 73 percent in the prior general election, while nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Safe…
-
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
US-Iran nuclear diplomacy continues to center on the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile amid stalled talks and recent military strikes on sites like Fordow and Isfahan. US negotiators have pressed for physical transfer of the material to the United States, facility dismantlement, and extended enrichment limits, while Iranian officials reject these terms and favor…